Monday, June 23, 2008

The Dog that Didn't Bark

Citigroup announced it was cutting mergers-and-acquisiions and IPO related bankers. You don't see any cuts for commercial lending. Speculative grade defaluts are still at below average levels (about 2.2% in Apr-May 2008, vs. 1.6% last year, 3.5% average). Further, the measure of ratings quality, the "Accuracy Ratio" of both ratings and the "Moody's Implied Ratings" remained high. This is consistent with low default environments, because when times are good, it's easy to separate the wheat from the chaff.

I think this implies the current crisis is focused, and that there will be no recession.

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