Thursday, July 24, 2008

Fund Manager in Cash


From the WSJ:
David Ellison, one of the most respected financial-stock managers in the mutual-fund industry, has had it. While he is pleased with the run-up in financials in recent days, he still sees signs of Armageddon in the sector.

He recently pumped up the cash level in his two funds to as much as half his assets. His FBR Large Cap Financial fund stood at 50% cash at the end of June, up from 2% at the start of 2007, and his FBR Small Cap Financial is at 38% from 0%, according to Morningstar Inc. "I don't want to lose any more money," said Mr. Ellison, an intense fellow who speaks about the stocks with barely concealed anger.

Even if he's right, this is dumb. You give money to a small-cap financial manager to pick the darn best small-cap financial companies, not to time the market. There are plenty of nervous Nellys on CNBC giving you contradictory advice on timing the market, and they are right about 50% of the time. If the equity market has a premium, listening to these guys merely means you get half the premium you otherwise would have.

Plus, I'm bullish on financials. It's not that bad.

7 comments:

J. said...

When WSJ calls someone "most respected", they mean "dumbest". FBRFX is losing 21.5% in 2008. I too think 2008 will be a good year for Zurich gnomes.

Anonymous said...

the equity premium is over long term. decades. this guy is probably benchmarked yearly. and if he's up even 1% over treasuries YTD I think it makes sense to play defense until the insanity clears.

Camabron said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Of course it's not "that bad" at these prices that's easy to say now. The same people were also saying "it's not that bad" when prices were 20,30,40 points higher.

Anonymous said...

eric, it's that bad. the whole country is f***ing broke. with no prospects as they say. now I hear wamu too is suing that analyst for pointing out a reality. where does it stop?
...and am I the only one who thinks propping up this housing at all costs is a dumb idea? if the whole economy is hooked on building investment then smth is broken in the structure.

Anonymous said...

We're all curious now about the deleted post. Can you give us a hint?

Eric Falkenstein said...

Users can delete their own posts. I didn't delete it, he did. I imagine it was someone high up in the SEC revealing insider information.