tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post7523935679183749860..comments2024-03-14T11:09:32.759-05:00Comments on Falkenblog: How Not to Fix Economic ModelsEric Falkensteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-55403759988219287832010-12-02T10:47:41.000-06:002010-12-02T10:47:41.000-06:00If Farmer actually made as much money at Swiss Ban...If Farmer actually made as much money at Swiss Bank as is hyped, why is he schnorring research funding from Soros?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-47729572026291520342010-12-01T17:24:59.446-06:002010-12-01T17:24:59.446-06:00Every model is right (sometimes) and wrong (someti...Every model is right (sometimes) and wrong (sometimes). Economic models are helpful when they expand our vision of what is possible. They make us stupid when we try to apply one model to every situation, and thus fail to consider some developments as possible.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-83420636949633206392010-12-01T14:01:40.278-06:002010-12-01T14:01:40.278-06:00I agree, and this is a great blog - at least the p...I agree, and this is a great blog - at least the parts I understand!<br /><br />Looking at my own behavior - my investing and spending has changed completely in the last 12 months as awareness broke on the likely outcomes to the 2008 rescue. So I buy books and read different blogs, "Monetary Regimes and Inflation", "This time its different", "When money dies"...<br /><br />Book sales and web-stats it seems to me could be a leading indicator of the behavior of this agent.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-67188210367705897492010-12-01T13:40:44.478-06:002010-12-01T13:40:44.478-06:00Can anyone think of a good way to short these mode...Can anyone think of a good way to short these models? :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-13854031138172851542010-12-01T12:18:38.207-06:002010-12-01T12:18:38.207-06:00One should know at least roughly what drives the o...One should know at least roughly what drives the output (inner working of the model) and how sensitive the output is to input changes. Otherwise the model does not contribute anything to our understanding of the world (I don't even dare to mention forecasting).<br /><br />May people forget that more often than not it's not feasible to come up with a full-fledged model. Recently we had this discussion about the effect of a x% rise in minimum capital requirements for banks on medium and long term GDP growth. Methinks making a list of possible positive and negative effects and thinking about it in an educated manner makes more sense then running a monster DSGE model that is partially calibrated to old data and to what the modeler thinks is a reasonable answer.Mahalanobishttp://mahalanobis.twoday.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-87143812871264416002010-12-01T11:12:15.716-06:002010-12-01T11:12:15.716-06:00I agree with your general sentiment about these ag...I agree with your general sentiment about these agent based models - they have been around for 20 or more years, and have never lived up to their hype.<br /><br />You really cannot get much from these models that you didn't put into the rules for choice.<br /><br />Adding behavioral assumptions is not going to make any difference - it is just another utility function.michael websterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08709023254632080905noreply@blogger.com