tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post7397432700546639204..comments2024-03-14T11:09:32.759-05:00Comments on Falkenblog: Panic!Eric Falkensteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-54149182592328544082008-05-29T15:53:00.000-05:002008-05-29T15:53:00.000-05:00With today’s 50% upward first revision to the Q1 G...With today’s <B>50%</B> upward <A HREF="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2008/gdp108p.htm" REL="nofollow">first revision to the Q1 GDP data</A>, the likelihood of a recession is fading really, really fast.<BR/><BR/>It is probable that Q2 will show slower growth than Q1. But the best minds <A HREF="http://www.conference-board.org/economics/stalk.cfm#forecast" REL="nofollow">remain convinced</A> Q2 will show positive GDP growth, every quarter of 2008 will show positive growth and 2009 will grow faster than that.<BR/><BR/>Once we get the <A HREF="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/2008rd.htm" REL="nofollow">final numbers for Q2</A> (9/26/08), we will be able to safely bury all this media hysteria in the ash pile of a very long, very sad history of media folly.<BR/><BR/>Fortunately, we’ll be able to bury the 2008 recession myth <B>before</B> the November election. Thus, the political ploy on the part of Dems will have backfired (big-time).<BR/><BR/>See my latest updates on this sorry <A HREF="http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&as_qdr=all&q=recession+%22worst+since+world+war+II%22" REL="nofollow">media driven hysteria</A> as well as plenty of historical perspective here:<BR/>================================<BR/><A HREF="http://sbvor.blogspot.com/2008/04/recession-of-2008-that-wasnt.html" REL="nofollow">The Recession of 2008 That Wasn’t?</A><BR/>================================SBVORhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02393495680438358951noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-36423653931192503202008-05-01T11:00:00.000-05:002008-05-01T11:00:00.000-05:00And business expenditures, those are so down from ...And business expenditures, those are so down from the level of previous year....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-40172935235451839302008-05-01T10:58:00.000-05:002008-05-01T10:58:00.000-05:00I ve run a regression analysis a while ago on what...I ve run a regression analysis a while ago on what economic factors influence stock prices.<BR/>I was surprised to see that business expenditures have much higher correlation to the stock prices then GDP figures.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-26255139153564887292008-04-28T08:14:00.000-05:002008-04-28T08:14:00.000-05:00old coots feel it in their bones even if they can'...old coots feel it in their bones even if they can't put the finger on it (or can't say it loud), but it's simple. the jig is up. printing money was fun for 50 years but the macro landscape has changed in the past 5 years, i think for good.<BR/><BR/>who's trusting those gdp numbers anymore? it's right up there with inflation 3% no matter what.<BR/>0.1% real gdp? and they lambast corporates for beating eps by a penny?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com