tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post7118577165235498669..comments2024-03-14T11:09:32.759-05:00Comments on Falkenblog: Dishonest ForecastersEric Falkensteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-31940121563518530972010-06-08T14:31:01.464-05:002010-06-08T14:31:01.464-05:00Thanks for the link to the Samuelson work. I figur...Thanks for the link to the Samuelson work. I figured somebody, at some time must have tried to model demand as a damped, driven oscillation. Too bad there was no reliable way to measure any of those variables.<br /><br />If you will permit him to be called one, Samuelson is the best of the econophysicists. I admire the way he let analogies to physics inspire his work. His followers and interpreters are more to blame than he for the bad consequences of neoclassical theory.Michael F. Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15279501532684851571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-28778590994822695342010-06-08T14:13:02.635-05:002010-06-08T14:13:02.635-05:00Depending on the timing, one could have easily mad...Depending on the timing, one could have easily made -- or lost -- substantially on <i>either</i> the long or short side of gold over the past twelve months.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-79641616670407835972010-06-08T00:52:57.533-05:002010-06-08T00:52:57.533-05:00vJD,
I made a couple of bucks last year buying pu...vJD,<br /><br />I <a href="http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/12/sold-rest-of-those-gld-puts.html" rel="nofollow">made</a> a couple of bucks last year buying puts on GLD after reading a commenter I respected <a href="http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/12/betting-against-gold-by-buying-lottery.html" rel="nofollow">write</a> that Sornette's formula predicted a crash. Gold didn't really "crash", but it corrected enough to make for a nice return those GLD puts. <br /><br />More recently though, I've wondered about the exact same thing you mention above: whether it might make more sense to <a href="http://steamcatapult.com/2010/06/01/embracing-bubbles/" rel="nofollow">embrace bubbles</a> than bet against them. My one twist is I think it might make sense to hedge while investing in bubbles.DaveinHackensackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01313169814904229272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-13937638219139716302010-06-08T00:38:15.183-05:002010-06-08T00:38:15.183-05:00When I look at the outcome of the forecasts I get ...When I look at the outcome of the forecasts I get the feeling that his forecasts are right - but you can't use them anyway. If you short the asset he forecasts to crash it only crashes to a point which is *above* the original point you bought. So it is more rational to ride the bubble and not to short it (see also here: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/fundamental-valuation/bubbles-ride-watch-or-play-the-pop/ )<br /><br />But this is only a preliminary assessment - I think you should watch how it all develops, perhaps there is some method to the madness...vonjdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12488764399725481497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-32741767323369083242010-06-07T20:50:49.177-05:002010-06-07T20:50:49.177-05:00Actually, I think Sornette is a pretty honest fore...Actually, I think Sornette is a pretty honest forecaster. I like his method of using a hash code, so he can keep his predictions secret for a time period, but still prove that he made them well in advance. The Financial Bubble Experiment papers are all pretty well publicized, and he's openly admitted the forecasts he got wrong. Furthermore, he publishes refinements to his methodology pretty regularly on Arxiv.Charles Krohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01729497087207560647noreply@blogger.com