tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post6880955004124898604..comments2024-03-14T11:09:32.759-05:00Comments on Falkenblog: Tail Volatility and 1987Eric Falkensteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-63416903637866244442009-07-15T20:16:00.829-05:002009-07-15T20:16:00.829-05:00i don't care for taleb. precisely for the reas...i don't care for taleb. precisely for the reason you stated. he's an economist, not a psychologist. has he forgotten that?<br /><br />but kahnemann's heuristics are very real to me.<br />he's a psychologist, not an economist.<br />the studies speak for themselves. you can't attack him. you can only attack the methods used and data collected in the studies.<br />or form your own alternative conclusions. and that's how science should be.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-44553437327928946652009-07-15T08:28:19.063-05:002009-07-15T08:28:19.063-05:00I appreciate that AH. I don't expect all of i...I appreciate that AH. I don't expect all of it to work on any thinking person, so I'm glad you liked most of it. If you could put up a review at Amazon that would be really helpful!Eric Falkensteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-46846805673783125262009-07-14T21:39:09.892-05:002009-07-14T21:39:09.892-05:00I'm so sick of Taleb's and Roubini's c...I'm so sick of Taleb's and Roubini's constant media promotion of themselves. I don't think either one specifically forecasted the kind of crisis that happened. But several of my colleagues now think that they have. I argue that saying "there will be an unexpected crisis sometime" is not a forecast.<br /><br />I do know a few fellow equity analysts that were grumbling about insane credit terms in mortgages and ratings practices that would "take down the firm" at the major ratings agency that EF didn't work for. And a bunch of equity analysts chuckling at David Weiss in 2006 when he said that the US could avoid recession as long as the property market held up. But I don't recall anyone specifically making big market bets based upon this unspecific concern.<br /><br />I'd say that CLSA's Chris Wood was the earliest outspoken forecaster of the collapse of securitized loans in general (that I heard), back in maybe early 2007. He also called for gold at $2000 which hasn't worked out yet.<br /><br />I really like (the vast majority of) your book, just finished it.AHWesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09829802681623277432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-83967002021835460032009-07-13T13:38:13.560-05:002009-07-13T13:38:13.560-05:00Congrats on your new book!
TeresaCongrats on your new book!<br /><br />TeresaInvivoAnalytics.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13905582881246622943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-28233602798939235092009-07-13T12:06:20.856-05:002009-07-13T12:06:20.856-05:00You might be interested in this EconTalk post with...You might be interested in this EconTalk post with Justin Fox: http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2009/07/justin_fox_on_t.htmlLancehttp://www.google.comnoreply@blogger.com