tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post6634554912570452600..comments2024-03-14T11:09:32.759-05:00Comments on Falkenblog: Betting on Black SwansEric Falkensteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-19271174924166267452009-08-19T20:56:24.649-05:002009-08-19T20:56:24.649-05:00mountainmininginvestment.com-I received $150,000 l...mountainmininginvestment.com-I received $150,000 liberty reserve<br />The Mountain Mining Investment Limited is a unique, financial gold, nickel and uranium mining company whose business strategy is to acquire royalty interests in gold <br /><br />production from its core assets in the Lake Victoria greenstone belt of Tanzania. Since this year we started nickel and uranium exploration.<br />Why To Invest?<br />- Registered Mining Company<br />- High own capital and reserve fund<br />- DDOS and Hacker protected<br />- Available worldwide<br />- Direct offshore investments<br />- Real Phone and Email Support <br />- Deposits are secured by reserve fund<br />20%-50% hourly for 120 hours (min $600-$29,999) (principal returned)<br />(Total Profit 2400% - 6000% in 5 days)500% per 6 hours for 48 hours (min $30,000-$9,9999)(principal returned) <br />(Total Profit 4000% in 2 days)150% hourly for 24 hours<br />(min $100,000-$1Million) (principal returned) (Total Roi: 3600% in 24 hours)<br />Date: 08/19/2009 16:57 <br />Batch: 13237xx<br />From Account: U6525495 (Mountain Mining Investment)<br />Amount: $150,000.00<br />Memo: mountainmininginvestment.com<br /><br /><br />keep reinvest everyday<br /><br />http://mountainmininginvestment.com/?U3390860<br />http://mountainmininginvestment.com/?U3390860<br /> <br />Mail to me if you made a deposit use my referral link.I will return 20% of your spend instant.100% guaranteed money back.<br />MY email:tazsrjs@gmail.com<br /><br />Make $50k libertyreserve money daily on forex trading<br />http://www.libertyreserveforex.net<br />Read news about hyips.make money fast and easy<br />http://libertyreserve-investment-hyip.blogspot.com/<br /><br />More news about paying hyips<br />http://groups.google.com/group/make1milliondaily<br /><br />Post Your AD on 1000+ Forums<br />The Best HYIP Rating. The Fairest High Yield Investment Programs Monitoring Service<br />http://www.yahoomsngroup.com/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-21023904932852770732009-07-28T19:34:02.509-05:002009-07-28T19:34:02.509-05:00To be an empiricist, I don't think we can know...To be an empiricist, I don't think we can know if black swan strategies "work" (whatever "work" means). They profit from tail events, and by definition there aren't many of those, so we don't have enough data to tell. My guess is that, like any other strategy, it depends.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-62336150102785424962009-07-26T13:08:55.733-05:002009-07-26T13:08:55.733-05:00Another claim by Taleb is that 'wild' risk...<i>Another claim by Taleb is that 'wild' risks from cocktail party chatter is especially useful.</i><br /><br />Where does Taleb say this? How can this be conflated with those scams? His example is that you might get an idea for a paper by talking to someone at a party, not unlike say Brian Eno's "Oblique Strategies".<br /><br />It is BECAUSE your comments and research shows black swan strategies are sucker strategies that they work! That's the irony of the black swans.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-8094405472693236252009-07-26T08:50:54.833-05:002009-07-26T08:50:54.833-05:00Eric:
on a diff note, do u have any thoughts on t...Eric:<br /><br />on a diff note, do u have any thoughts on the certifications like "Financial Risk Manager" (www.garp.com) & CFA?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-21007712643663417812009-07-24T08:36:58.640-05:002009-07-24T08:36:58.640-05:00Isn't your story just another behavioral bias ...Isn't your story just another behavioral bias that you keep criticizing?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-29339467967569477522009-07-23T15:31:00.317-05:002009-07-23T15:31:00.317-05:00A -0.2 Sharpe strategy like this, with high transa...A -0.2 Sharpe strategy like this, with high transaction costs, probably has a -0.1 cost taking the opposite side.Eric Falkensteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-58377929935734793902009-07-23T15:27:18.677-05:002009-07-23T15:27:18.677-05:00Eric,
So then you would advise selling the 2by1 ou...Eric,<br />So then you would advise selling the 2by1 out of the money put spreads that you suggest are poor investments. ie take the other side of the black swan trades that underperform over time. After all if this black swan strategy is a loser than it would be simple to do the opposite and find alpha, no?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-46088896075348162902009-07-23T12:40:15.498-05:002009-07-23T12:40:15.498-05:00There was French cardinal by the name of de Retz w...There was French cardinal by the name of de Retz who in the 17th century supposedly said/wrote:"Nothing sways the stupid more than arguments they can't understand". I think Taleb is the nihilistic Pied Piper of a bunch of folks who like the sound of what he is preaching but fundamentally have no idea what he is really saying.<br /><br />Your collection of on average money losing lottery tickets is also a list of "trades". There may not be a systematic pay-off to high yield, but it is the trade de jour. There may not be a positive systematic pay-off to IPOs, but given this market there will probably be an IPO boom. People love to trade, they really don't love to invest.....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-86924165594438275352009-07-23T11:49:06.700-05:002009-07-23T11:49:06.700-05:00making a couple percent extra by avoiding Black Sw...making a couple percent extra by avoiding Black Swans is not a high profile strategy; it won't lead you to the top of a mutual fund winners list; it is not sufficient for a hedge fund strategy demanding a potential 1+ Sharpe. It's like index fund investing, which has Alpha relative to active management. A good idea, I think, but one most find unappealing (they are still only about 15% of equity funds).<br /><br />It's alpha, but modest alpha. I think it would make an excellent scalable, long-only strategy, and would take any offer to manage such a strategy!Eric Falkensteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-58153653150356448662009-07-23T11:27:26.092-05:002009-07-23T11:27:26.092-05:00So if beating the market is so easy -- buy low bet...So if beating the market is so easy -- buy low beta stocks with momentum, and hold on -- then why do you say that alpha is so hard to find? "See, beating the market is no problem, just follow these simple steps. And by the way, if you don't have any inside info, forget it, almost nobody beats the market." <br /><br />Huh? So which is it?lancenoreply@blogger.com