tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post4410157440302052037..comments2024-03-14T11:09:32.759-05:00Comments on Falkenblog: Inflation 6.6%?Eric Falkensteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-74191705744051060932011-03-23T00:07:47.317-05:002011-03-23T00:07:47.317-05:00There are alternate measures of inflation produced...There are alternate measures of inflation produced by non-official sources and the inflation rate appears to be higher than the official stats. One such source, John Williams of Shadowstats.com calculates the inflation rate according to the government's methods of decades ago (and which have been altered since) and comes up with some interesting results.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-79671303942333116422011-03-22T17:28:52.064-05:002011-03-22T17:28:52.064-05:00There is a market in inflation swaps, which will g...There is a market in inflation swaps, which will give you an accurate consensus forecast. If you really disagree with the market consensus, go long or short.<br /><br />Talk is cheap.tfcoopernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-91261018276681571472011-03-22T13:01:11.163-05:002011-03-22T13:01:11.163-05:00Oh, and this is cool too: http://bpp.mit.edu/metho...Oh, and this is cool too: http://bpp.mit.edu/methodology/Mercurynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-70321398559459775822011-03-22T12:17:30.658-05:002011-03-22T12:17:30.658-05:00The CPI is BS. For one thing food and energy reall...The CPI is BS. For one thing food and energy really do matter to people and goods where food & energy are significant inputs. The hedonic wonderfulness of your better-for-cheaper Ipad2 doesn't actually pay the bills either. Also, they've frigged with the CPI calculation in the 80's and 90's and current inflation calculated with the original methodology is much higher than 1.6%. It sure seems like everything is a lot more than 1.6% more expensive than last year to me. Related: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-chartsMercurynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-60631876321672750912011-03-22T08:03:16.341-05:002011-03-22T08:03:16.341-05:00The big difference between the 60s and now is that...The big difference between the 60s and now is that, in the 60s, they thought the Philips curve was a menu ... and they were willing to tolerate higher inflation. <br /><br />Then they added expectations to the models, and we know that the Philps curve can shift up and down.Pete Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01722037274235500118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-84079712719925846262011-03-21T22:09:28.693-05:002011-03-21T22:09:28.693-05:00http://www.dfaus.com/pdf/science_of_investing_us.p...http://www.dfaus.com/pdf/science_of_investing_us.pdf<br /><br />Mr. Falken?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-75175205103852480992011-03-21T21:44:43.268-05:002011-03-21T21:44:43.268-05:00In the rare event that velocity snaps back to wher...In the rare event that velocity snaps back to where it was before the Fed can do anything about it, inflation could get extreme. When you average that in, 6.6% isn't too insane.<br /><br />I mean, conditional on that we are in the midst of a recovery, 4% sounds perfectly realistic to me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com