tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post4279915186254495496..comments2024-03-14T11:09:32.759-05:00Comments on Falkenblog: The Unpredictability of This CrisisEric Falkensteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-57829741072658384692009-03-05T11:10:00.000-06:002009-03-05T11:10:00.000-06:00I (like others) estimated losses caused by bad mor...I (like others) estimated losses caused by bad mortgages around $ 300 bn, most of it sold to foreign investors. The market could absorb it easily, and its over-reaction seemed (and was, I maintain) was excessive. <BR/><BR/>At that point I should have realized that a general panic and run on the bank was developing and I should have sold everything and buy Krugerrands. <BR/><BR/>Once the panicked run on the banks had developed, what should I have done? I did nothing. <BR/><BR/>Now the situation is that money is abundant again but people is paralysed by fear. Will confidence return as a flash flood (like in the crisis ten years ago) or be rebuilt gradually along the years (as in 1929)?Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05676167615981895061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-17730348731973344142009-03-04T22:21:00.000-06:002009-03-04T22:21:00.000-06:00Do we need to pinpoint a trigger, a root a cause? ...Do we need to pinpoint a trigger, a root a cause? <BR/><BR/>IMO the trigger doesn't matter because if the market is vulnerable to positive feedback loops then the slightest perturbation will eventually lead to crisis. <BR/><BR/>I speculate little about what the world will look like in 100 years but I would be shocked if we do not suffer from periodic economic declines. <BR/><BR/>Obviously there are good and bad policy responses to disruptions but eliminating major fluctuations seems impossible to me because the more "safe" you make the system, the more people then panic when the system appears to start breaking down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-13333557527741079212009-03-04T07:50:00.000-06:002009-03-04T07:50:00.000-06:00i'm worse. i anticipated it and got pinched anyway...i'm worse. i anticipated it and got pinched anyway. was in cash '05,'06 and '07, then convinced bernanke would print maybe $300-$500b and dilute everyone.<BR/><BR/>he starts cutting, they bail bear in the spring, market drops 15% he starts flooding, mkt recovers some. i put 10% in and spend the summer itching b/c couldnt find anything 'cheap'. in september i can't take the dilution anymore and put another 20% in. and then the bottom fell.<BR/><BR/>my only 'consolations' are they used 10t so far and buffet got taken too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-33191870861467944412009-03-04T07:46:00.000-06:002009-03-04T07:46:00.000-06:00From NN [Identity having problems in my browser]:D...From NN [Identity having problems in my browser]:<BR/><BR/><BR/>Do you think speculative bubbles become easier to identify in the future when you have a few rules of thumb? You might be interested in the book 'Patterns of Speculation' by a econophysicist that analyzes speculative bubbles throughout history from a quantitative perspective.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com