tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post3759852711060698699..comments2024-03-14T11:09:32.759-05:00Comments on Falkenblog: Complex Adaptive SystemsEric Falkensteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-74114448475691177582010-08-31T12:11:01.624-05:002010-08-31T12:11:01.624-05:00I visited Yellowstone during the 1988 fire, and th...I visited Yellowstone during the 1988 fire, and then again last year. One impact, from a tourist's point of view, is that moose haven't returned to the park, because (a ranger told me) their preferred habitat hasn't grown back yet. In 1988 we saw moose all over Yellowstone, but last year saw none. However there were a fair number of moose scattered around Teton.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-48195572816454469822010-08-25T07:27:16.927-05:002010-08-25T07:27:16.927-05:00On complex systems. Eric correct the component va...On complex systems. Eric correct the component variables in a complex are such that amplification or attenuation of the desired system change state over the long term is impossible to predict. <br /><br />All one can hope for is a steady and stable state, an attactor if you will. extreme amplification would approximate hyperinflation and extreme attenuation of a critical variable would approximate economic death.<br /><br />Tweaking the components in such a system is expensive and/ or dangerous. Blinders metaphor is so simplistic it makes the Laffer curve look rigorous and falsifiable (good economic science).nick gogertyhttp://www.gogerty.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-26626949369917721932010-08-25T03:37:13.132-05:002010-08-25T03:37:13.132-05:00Eric - Not that this changes your message on the n...Eric - Not that this changes your message on the need for humility, but it's far from clear that the Yellowstone fires were a disaster. The ecosystem started regenerating almost instantly after the fire which hints that it is essentially adapted to such "catastrophic" fires. Many ecologists believe that given how old the lodgepole pines in Yellowstone were compared to their usual burn-by date (250 yrs compared to usual lifespan of 100 years) such a fire was inevitable and in fact exacerbated by the combustible load built up by the half century of fire suppression. <br /><br />Consistent with a well-known thesis in ecology that stabilisation of a complex adaptive system reduces its resilience in the long run which has relevance to economic systems as I note here <a href="http://www.macroresilience.com/2009/12/06/minskys-financial-instability-hypothesis-and-hollings-conception-of-resilience-and-stability/" rel="nofollow">http://www.macroresilience.com/2009/12/06/minskys-financial-instability-hypothesis-and-hollings-conception-of-resilience-and-stability/</a>Ashwinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12538605904825633269noreply@blogger.com