tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post3554601427323661858..comments2024-03-14T11:09:32.759-05:00Comments on Falkenblog: Fooled by RandomnessEric Falkensteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-79161731430320320832008-11-16T22:48:00.000-06:002008-11-16T22:48:00.000-06:00I dunno, dude. You just seem to say Taleb twists ...I dunno, dude. You just seem to say Taleb twists your panties. I sincerely think you need to get far, far away from your little world and go out and live. Then you might understand why endless tweaking of technical points is silly, particularly when you are as cocky as you seem to be.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-8251599411966078352008-11-14T10:02:00.000-06:002008-11-14T10:02:00.000-06:00I think Taleb has stated he is an example of a bla...I think Taleb has stated he is an example of a black swan--at least with respect to his books' popularity. And I've never seen anything to suggest he claims to be a 'skilled trader,' lucky idiot is probably more accurate. Incidentally, he recently told an interviewer the banking bust wasn't a black swan, since plenty of people saw it coming and knew it was potentially a 'huge impact' event.<BR/><BR/>The way I read Taleb (and I've been following his writings for about tens years), he's just saying: don't believe there's ANY certainty in future returns calculated using past returns & bad models of risk. Hey, lots of people swear by technical analysis and some even get rich--expertise in using a rigorous method or dumb luck?<BR/><BR/>Taleb: Former good trader who's just a bitter, attention-hungry mouth?--or, Gifted author who survived throat cancer (despite the grim odds) and decided life's too short to waste on anything you're not passionate about?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-44707401390762169652008-11-10T17:02:00.000-06:002008-11-10T17:02:00.000-06:00I agree with you 100 percent,I like a lot of what ...I agree with you 100 percent,<BR/><BR/>I like a lot of what Taleb has written previously and was a devout follower of him after he wrote "Dynamic Hedging". He was way ahead of anyone at the time and what he wrote about in that book at the time few of us options traders globally were actually trading that way.<BR/><BR/>Then came "fooled by randomness" and taleb used the options framework to start to explain life in general. He followed up that global hit with the "black swan" and failed to see that he has become one himself.<BR/><BR/>All he is constantly doing is purchasing some wings (for his fund and writings) and loving the attention. He bought some insurance, shit happened, he made money...hhhmmm let me see..Skilled trader ? or lucky idiot? using his vernacular.<BR/><BR/>Unfortunately he is to busy stuffing himself with his own self importance to see it.<BR/><BR/>Taleb was a good trader.<BR/><BR/>That was a long time ago.<BR/><BR/>Today he is a just a mouth !!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-81851073322127790482008-11-09T22:08:00.000-06:002008-11-09T22:08:00.000-06:00"Had he got his forecasts for the fall of banking ..."Had he got his forecasts for the fall of banking wrong, the error would only have strengthened his general theory of black swans."<BR/><BR/>sums it up the best. he's right in some respects though, but you're too blinded by your biases to admit it. the return is appalling anyway; even if you make 100% in the catastrophe-of-the-century year and 1% in the rest, it's underperforming big time. <BR/><BR/>http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/article4938008.eceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com