tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post203243269011936781..comments2024-03-14T11:09:32.759-05:00Comments on Falkenblog: How to Detect BlatherEric Falkensteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-31826032260840100452012-02-19T23:23:26.849-06:002012-02-19T23:23:26.849-06:00Paradoxically, insecurity and humility are not pos...Paradoxically, insecurity and humility are not positively correlated. An insecure person is less willing to expose his uncertainties to himself or others because he is afraid he might lose face, so he maintains beliefs well beyond their appropriate level of confidence.sell structured settlementhttp://settlement-cash-structured-for-flow.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-76719276038619754552012-02-16T13:56:49.680-06:002012-02-16T13:56:49.680-06:00My favorite teacher used to say after a lecture: N...My favorite teacher used to say after a lecture: Now I am going to clean the blackboard and fill it with meaningless equations, so the next class will know we have been learning engineering.Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05676167615981895061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-3281560727959074122012-02-15T16:32:23.451-06:002012-02-15T16:32:23.451-06:00I can't help doing dimensional analysis when I...I can't help doing dimensional analysis when I see a new equation.<br /><br />As you say, there's a time dimension involved and if you chase up other posts from Brad about eq.11 you see he uses regular % per annum for those rate factors (rd, g, ρ all have dimension of 1/time). I agree that those are not constant w.r.t. time, but that's OK because maybe eq.11 represents our best understanding for a given future horizon based on the information we have available (I'm trying to be generous here).<br /><br />So that leaves the magic η factor and there's some explanation of where that comes from:<br /><br />http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/01/hysteresis-and-the-american-unemployment-problem.html<br /><br />Note that the η factor must also be a rate with dimension of 1/time but here is Brad's derivation:<br /><br /><i>"Two years during which real GDP has stayed flat at 7% below our pre-2007 estimates of potential output have managed to push potential output down by 0.5%: that suggests a value for η of 0.5/(7 x 2) = 0.035."</i><br /><br />The way I see it, this process delivers η as a unitless ratio instead of a per annum rate. If that's the case eq.11 <b>*must*</b> be broken, without any further study required.<br /><br />I'd say it is also fraught with danger to use (rd - g) as a denominator, when you are subtracting two numbers that are quite close to each other (but both are highly debatable as to how you empirically determine what they are) and you get a denominator close to zero so a small error in either rd or g gives a large error in the answer.Telhttp://lnx-bsp.net/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-52397664920578908812012-02-15T11:53:57.554-06:002012-02-15T11:53:57.554-06:00Too many people use equations (and technical jargo...Too many people use equations (and technical jargon) for intimidation, signaling, or obfuscation and too many audiences let themselves be intimidated, impressed, or fooled by this. But I can't agree that "Those people aren't worth impressing."<br /><br />Unfortunately, in many fields (academe, large bureaucratic organizations) your job depends critically on impressing people who have what the post calls "mediocre minds." Because of that, posturing becomes a job-critical skill and iterative selection guarantees that only those who impress get to decide the fate of others in those fields...<br /> <br />JCSJosehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10016440405836313244noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-56893251664781113072012-02-14T14:48:30.756-06:002012-02-14T14:48:30.756-06:00"Sir, (a+b^n) / n = x , hence God exists—repl..."Sir, (a+b^n) / n = x , hence God exists—reply!"<br /><br />Euler could do this sort of thing tongue in cheek -- DeLong, not so much. Too self-important.<br /><br />Why is it that when I watch and listen to Delong all I can think of is the Comic Book Guy on the Simpsons?gpc31noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-57545619010834690482012-02-14T12:33:05.580-06:002012-02-14T12:33:05.580-06:00Maybe Brad's watched the old Hitchcock movie, ...Maybe Brad's watched the old Hitchcock movie, 'Torn Curtain' too many times.Patrick R. Sullivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-82542656276078272072012-02-14T12:10:07.308-06:002012-02-14T12:10:07.308-06:00He is not joking, he is dead serious about his ana...He is not joking, he is dead serious about his analysis and the importance of "the equation"<br /><br />http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/01/thinking-aloud-about-fiscal-policy-in-a-depressed-economy.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-53369576363004669242012-02-14T08:25:43.690-06:002012-02-14T08:25:43.690-06:00He wants to reserve the robes, holy books and auth...He wants to reserve the robes, holy books and authority for himself and the other high priests because he knows that if the alter is ever turned around and the liturgy translated from the Latin into the vernacular, it will be starkly obvious that it’s all just a bunch of hocus pocus.Mercurynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-46833085725507539142012-02-14T08:17:27.840-06:002012-02-14T08:17:27.840-06:00Leo: Paradoxically, insecurity and humility are no...Leo: Paradoxically, insecurity and humility are not positively correlated. An insecure person is less willing to expose his uncertainties to himself or others because he is afraid he might lose face, so he maintains beliefs well beyond their appropriate level of confidence.Eric Falkensteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-50026098734532890062012-02-14T07:07:49.569-06:002012-02-14T07:07:49.569-06:00He's not much of an economist, but DeLong does...He's not much of an economist, but DeLong does know doughnuts!Steve in Greensboronoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-34439533022296754132012-02-14T05:42:18.207-06:002012-02-14T05:42:18.207-06:00Maybe you would be a better thinker if you were mo...Maybe you would be a better thinker if you were more insecure, Eric. A bit of humility might allow you to make the effort to understand what talented individuals are saying when they don't say what you want to hear. At any rate, focusing on the content rather than the form or the messenger is most likely a much better heuristic than the one you are proposing...Leonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-80348306438301014072012-02-13T23:38:01.542-06:002012-02-13T23:38:01.542-06:00He's making a joke and it wasn't funny. He...He's making a joke and it wasn't funny. He's an economic historian and he has good things to say minus jokes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-73199728141163345522012-02-13T20:43:36.815-06:002012-02-13T20:43:36.815-06:00Well said, sir!Well said, sir!W.C. Varoneshttp://www.wcvarones.comnoreply@blogger.com