tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post1593529488815037495..comments2024-03-14T11:09:32.759-05:00Comments on Falkenblog: Risk and Return: Knowledge is DangerousEric Falkensteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-435320280221422082011-09-09T12:45:20.034-05:002011-09-09T12:45:20.034-05:00Don't know how the schools split up exactly, b...Don't know how the schools split up exactly, but a number of people you accuse of wanting "more government spending" really only want "more government deficit".<br /><br />This is not the same thing! In that view the monetary prescription to inject money into the private sector in a deflationary environment/when unemployment is high is neutral on the size of government: you can halve the size of government and all will be well if you still have the required net increase in deficit at the same time.Blixanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-26543946680192117812011-09-08T08:39:55.275-05:002011-09-08T08:39:55.275-05:00I can’t remember if I’ve previously mentioned this...I can’t remember if I’ve previously mentioned this Clever Sillies article<br /> http://medicalhypotheses.blogspot.com/2009/11/clever-sillies-why-high-iq-lack-common.html<br /><br />over at Medical Hypotheses from a couple years ago but its relevant here and a great read.<br /><br />Basically it argues that humans have evolved adaptive behaviors over tens of thousands of years that, among other things, have equipped them very well to read, anticipate and manipulate other human behavior. Even people with well below average intelligence have a pretty good handle on what motivates people, how to incentivize them toward desirable actions, interpret emotional signals etc. Sometimes this is called “common sense”.<br /><br />We all know that a hallmark of persons blessed with much higher than average intelligence is that they tend to be much better at abstract thinking and manipulating abstract concepts. The rub is that these types of people tend to want to apply abstract analysis in areas where it detracts rather than adds value (especially social problems). It is a huge understatement to say that academia encourages this type of thing (recycling grandma’s wisdom doesn’t fly as a PhD thesis). Check it out.Mercurynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-45980031370213203592011-09-07T21:46:12.361-05:002011-09-07T21:46:12.361-05:00Good food for thought.
Saying that generalizatio...Good food for thought. <br /><br />Saying that generalization "in general" is wrong is mathematically equivalent to saying that central limit theorem is all nonsense. There is nothing wrong with generalizaton as a tool and is quite useful as long as a list of implicit assumptions hold. It may be that we often choose to apply generalizaton to the wrong things unconsciously seeking to confirm or rationalize some result we happen to like, but that's entirely our fault. "To generalize is to be an idiot" because things are too complex is like saying "to use Black Scholes or VaR models is to be an idiot", because things are too complex (which some people do say, wrongly, I believe).B. A.noreply@blogger.com