tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post6100289122156325725..comments2024-03-14T11:09:32.759-05:00Comments on Falkenblog: P/Es and the Stock MarketEric Falkensteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-64482665018200241712009-07-15T21:03:43.798-05:002009-07-15T21:03:43.798-05:00cash is what matters.
those that have it can do a...cash is what matters.<br /><br />those that have it can do advantageous things no matter what point we are at in a cycle.<br /><br />but even cash is not as valuable as the natural resources themselves.<br />cash can be rendered "worthless".<br />how much can you do with small pieces of paper?<br />however there are few, if any, limitless natural resources needed for human survival- these resources will always have value to people trying to survive.<br /><br />all that being true, there's also one (intangible) thing that can be as valuable as either cash or natural resources:<br />the power to persuade.<br /><br />for instance, i can persuade people i know something they don't know but need to know, and should know, i might be able to convince them to exchange their cash or resources for my knowledge. i could persuade the that life is very complex and that before thy act, they need more information than they have available to them.<br />i could refer to my knowledge as in the field of "economics".<br /><br />or, i could even persuade people to give me resources directly, just because they want my companionship. otherwise known as "sharing".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-74696916494469576422009-06-17T11:52:16.796-05:002009-06-17T11:52:16.796-05:00Interesting article.
My personal experience: I wa...Interesting article.<br /><br />My personal experience: I was able to use the Shiller data (when the book came out) to slightly trim my personal exposure to equities and improve the performance in 2000-2003. (I never seriously considered getting entirely out of the market for the reasons you mention). But this time (2006) I did not take any action, partly because I thought the professor was becoming a consistent bear, and I did not see this crash coming.<br /><br />So, yes, I have found it is difficult to make use of this type of information.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-90419818444608743782009-06-14T10:47:50.496-05:002009-06-14T10:47:50.496-05:00You say this recent dust-up wasn't predictable...You say this recent dust-up wasn't predictable. Yet you don't like Taleb's Black Swan idea. So what kind of event was it?tchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10540495343231722385noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-37181497564085506922009-06-13T00:17:27.842-05:002009-06-13T00:17:27.842-05:00Good information, thanks.
As a quick sidenote, can...Good information, thanks.<br />As a quick sidenote, can't you just use technical analysis to determine the current trend, and stick with that?<br />A simple rule such as, buy when the 6 month exponential moving average is above the 9 months exponential moving average, and sell when the 6 month moves below the 9 month should work in terms of timing the long term trend, while still being minimal effort.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12556918763922914164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-45347530743902526522009-06-12T23:10:13.406-05:002009-06-12T23:10:13.406-05:00Despite the well-documented difficulties in findin...Despite the well-documented difficulties in finding good trading rules - even with lots of degrees of freedom for hindsight data mining - I still (irrationally?) feel that if you buy stocks when they are cheap with respect to earnings that is a better deal than if you buy them when they are expensive.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com