tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post3476339340117106542..comments2024-03-14T11:09:32.759-05:00Comments on Falkenblog: Nassim Taleb Imitates Kanye WestEric Falkensteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-18439874299672209532010-12-10T18:41:16.538-06:002010-12-10T18:41:16.538-06:00I read Taleb's new 'book' in less than...I read Taleb's new 'book' in less than an hour (it's a ~115 page list of quotes) and there are tons of logical inconsistencies. Maybe 30 of his statements are pretty good, though.<br /><br />I think he is a man who reads broadly and repackages the ideas of others into his own words.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-69552051811767301132010-12-10T14:26:14.185-06:002010-12-10T14:26:14.185-06:00Bob: He's a best selling author, often on TV ...Bob: He's a best selling author, often on TV giving advice on lots of stuff to adoring interviewers. He's hardly been rejected. His ideas haven't been embraced by economists because as mentioned, there is nothing new in there. Lots of economists have, and will, study Knightian uncertainty, the implications of fat tails, as always.<br />Pierre: I wrote a book on finance, and never mentionned Taleb. Aaron Brown reviewed it, and complained that I didn't mention him! I don't think he has anything to say, but I recognize people like to hear about him. Taleb and his acolytes cast ad hominems on me and point to his popularity or putative investing acumen, tactics even he would consider pathetic in others. The bottom line is: what sort of dossier would you construct in place of a VAR report? What specific refinement to option models would you suggest? For one dismissive of critics, his work is basically one big unfocused criticism against caricatures, straw men. There's no substantively useful idea in his writings that was said decades ago, and better, by others.Eric Falkensteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-66860603903746229182010-12-10T13:50:50.176-06:002010-12-10T13:50:50.176-06:00they say that you have obsession started in 1996 w...they say that you have obsession started in 1996 with many more under pseudoname in many blogs.<br /><br />how many thousand of hours you spend thinking of nassim and writing?<br /><br />he bothers you.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09448478990651446384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-15745095337307387932010-12-10T13:04:12.644-06:002010-12-10T13:04:12.644-06:00This post is bollocks. After having his Tractatus ...This post is bollocks. After having his Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus rejected for about the thirtieth time, Wittgenstein remarked: 'Casting pearls before swine is bad enough, but having them rejected is intolerable.'<br /><br />Geniuses are often misunderstood, and they often take great pride in their genius and resent being ignored or ridiculed.Bobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-10319158339805600162010-12-10T12:29:14.995-06:002010-12-10T12:29:14.995-06:00Pierre: Your Master should be pleased in making th...Pierre: Your Master should be pleased in making the obligatory accusation. As mentioned, my comments are consistent with me being an envious fool, or correct--Kanye says the same thing about his 'player haters'. But I have 995 posts. 11 that directly discuss Taleb, 29 that mention him in an aside. So, while 'google search' on the blog url might bring up 100, that's includes multiple entries for a single post, and comments mentioning Taleb. 11 out of 995 is hardly excessive given he is popular and discusses ideas in my interest, and the hits on these posts are probably about twice my usual number.Eric Falkensteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-52402553870468511082010-12-10T12:03:14.935-06:002010-12-10T12:03:14.935-06:00definitely falkenstine has an obsessive nassim pro...definitely falkenstine has an obsessive nassim problem. <br /><br />envy, total obsessive hatred.<br /><br />he has posted 100 posts so far.all the same.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09448478990651446384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-3878169309157239092010-12-09T06:33:50.806-06:002010-12-09T06:33:50.806-06:00who's Mandelbroit??who's Mandelbroit??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-65221001805164519722010-12-08T23:39:29.931-06:002010-12-08T23:39:29.931-06:00Taleb is an engaging raconteur and iconoclast. He...Taleb is an engaging raconteur and iconoclast. He became fascinated by the shallowness with which finance professionals tended to interpret the probabilistic mathematics they toss around so pretentiously. His genius lay in leveraging his personality into a perfect instrument for delivering an iconoclastic message about this shallowness at the very moment TV producers went looking for an entertaining spokesperson for the bear case.<br /><br />The fact that Taleb is a tremendous ego doesn't change the fact that he's taking pot shots at people who (mostly) richly deserve it. Anyone less absurdly self-confident would wilt in the role he plays.<br /><br />I'll continue enjoying his antics.Sethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16486234948199900568noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-6269649320231983832010-12-08T21:09:36.080-06:002010-12-08T21:09:36.080-06:00John: funny. dunno. It disappeared. I didn'...John: funny. dunno. It disappeared. I didn't do it.Eric Falkensteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-47246761748873399852010-12-08T21:01:47.042-06:002010-12-08T21:01:47.042-06:00What happened to Aaron Brown's post?What happened to Aaron Brown's post?John McCormackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09153615162870606183noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-6550325683113427352010-12-08T18:43:29.421-06:002010-12-08T18:43:29.421-06:00He might have a big ego and is rude to economists,...He might have a big ego and is rude to economists, but he used his theory to trade and become well off or even rich.<br /><br />The key thing that he did well was write down his theories before the crash. he might not have predicted the specific crash, but he predicted that betting the farm when you don't understand the risk will make you a turkey.Joehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17732360949094918073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-77258059151182033782010-12-08T10:35:26.515-06:002010-12-08T10:35:26.515-06:00One more Taleb statistic. He (most likely) has the...One more Taleb statistic. He (most likely) has the highest ever ratio of downloads to cites on ssrn. Most downloaded and least cited. See for example: <br /><br />http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=970480&rec=1&srcabs=1012075<br /><br />Of course he would probably say that the imbelices who write papers dont appreciate his true genius :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-73621035624242369742010-12-08T05:43:05.902-06:002010-12-08T05:43:05.902-06:00http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution
U...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution<br /><br />Unbelievable.Mean-Mode Traderhttp://mahalanobis.twoday.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-19657231071739943032010-12-08T05:12:44.411-06:002010-12-08T05:12:44.411-06:00as the straightest volatility play, the ETF VXX, h...<i>as the straightest volatility play, the ETF VXX, has lost 90% of its value since inception in Jan 2009</i><br /><br />ummmmm .... quite sensitive to the choice of start date here!ddnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-31244086696991949372010-12-08T03:50:40.922-06:002010-12-08T03:50:40.922-06:00I would just offer that because Taleb's work h...I would just offer that because Taleb's work has made it into the mainstream, millions of people like myself, who might never have been exposed to and inspired by this area of thought, have benefited immensely.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-82661650904009333872010-12-08T03:32:45.027-06:002010-12-08T03:32:45.027-06:00I thoroughly enjoyed this well written polemic of ...I thoroughly enjoyed this well written polemic of Taleb. Nothing is black and white in this world. Taleb has clearly added some value if only insofar that he's reminded us of many of the fundamental truths written by much wiser and original thinkers before him (Popper and keynes). Cheekily, Taleb's successful ideas around probability vs. causation reflects his own concept of being a surviving sample. Like Roubini he was someone who had made references and statements (along with a lot of other polemic rant) claiming the financial system was unsustainable pre financial melt down. Statistically, someone was bound to have made such comments. Like parenting books one only gets heard when one professes extreme ideas. Memes that don't play on our emotional hot buttons of fear, survival and loss aversion don't replicate and survive very long (i.e. Taleb's survivorship bias). Taleb generates strong memes that appeal to the undiscerning quasi intellectual fundmanager, which is why we are talking about him at all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-52774709269733772732010-12-07T00:51:13.411-06:002010-12-07T00:51:13.411-06:00I must take issue with the suggestion that Taleb ...I must take issue with the suggestion that Taleb is generous in acknowledging other people's ideas. In that torrent of abuse known as The Black Swan he goes to great lengths to convince the reader that his work is a "primary idea" and not the "rehashing of other people's work". He claims originality over Frank Knight on the grounds that Knight failed to notice that one of his two categories was empty (risks that can be modeled), and posits an explanation for Knight's inability to make the final brilliant leap. Apparently, Knight may have thought a lot but perhaps he never took risks, or lived in the vicinity of a casino. <br /><br />The bookmaker's best friend should live in the vicinity of a racetrack for a while and leave us in peace. We can do without this quant spokesperson.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-49275276468416924832010-12-06T22:56:15.265-06:002010-12-06T22:56:15.265-06:00I'm no apologist for Taleb, but I think this r...I'm no apologist for Taleb, but I think this review is first and foremost a little childish. I can see not agreeing with Taleb's maxims, but to compare them to "tweets" when they basically read like re-written Chateaubriand is to dumb down the conversation. <br /><br />Secondly, you seem to misunderstand some points. For example, this--"This focus on the improbable can lead to excessive risk taking, such as buying lottery tickets or joining multi-level marketing schemes"--is precisely what Taleb argues against in Black Swan. That was one of the points he rightly called Cowen out for. It seemed to me, before I even read Taleb's response, that Cowen had skimmed the book only before writing his review. <br /><br />A final point: as vain as Taleb can be, he pretty explicitly says many of the ideas forwarded in Black Swan are not his, and he seems generous in acknowledging that. If there's value in what he's done, it's in amalgamation. <br /><br />My two cents anyway...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-3995498958152406072010-12-06T15:43:34.931-06:002010-12-06T15:43:34.931-06:00grandiose piece. Fine example of what i think of a...grandiose piece. Fine example of what i think of as falkenart.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-78604976763777281462010-12-06T15:31:27.116-06:002010-12-06T15:31:27.116-06:00Are you envious of Taleb's popularity (compare...Are you envious of Taleb's popularity (compared to your lack of popularity), given that you're both trying to fill a similar niche?Talnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-49818837649478806892010-12-06T11:06:43.015-06:002010-12-06T11:06:43.015-06:00I find Taleb's egotism to be more charming tha...I find Taleb's egotism to be more charming than irritating, but it's a matter of taste.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-24242923774423126022010-12-06T09:16:03.592-06:002010-12-06T09:16:03.592-06:00"The key is not to increase the perceived pro..."The key is not to increase the perceived probabilities of small probability events, rather to get them as correct as possible. Some should go up, some down, and this is hard work. "<br /><br />To me this is the most cutting criticism of Taleb. This shows most clearly how he gets it wrong as he stands on the shoulders of giants and fails to see any further.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05431036725490947171noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-42675359195174952142010-12-06T09:12:19.033-06:002010-12-06T09:12:19.033-06:00Aaron: I agree he's popular, but many then mak...Aaron: I agree he's popular, but many then make bad inferences, like Black-Scholes is 'wrong' or unoriginal. I'm not trying to be mean, but is there an argument in Taleb's work that is new, true and important?Eric Falkensteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07243687157322033496noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-4517933939466198882010-12-06T09:01:33.006-06:002010-12-06T09:01:33.006-06:00"Modesty is a virtue not because it implies s..."Modesty is a virtue not because it implies servile humility, but because it implies a combination of honesty and knowledge. Using self-righteous anger to justify immodesty just highlights one's immaturity."<br /><br />That's excellent!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05431036725490947171noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7905515.post-36690602563041475072010-12-06T07:53:54.278-06:002010-12-06T07:53:54.278-06:00---------
game theory itself has been much less fr...---------<br />game theory itself has been much less fruitful than originally thought.<br />---------<br /><br />Surely an understatement, no? Consider the 50 since Schelling published his classic The Strategy of Conflict. Can you name a single result in game theory that is actually used by a profit making business? I am not talking about a game theorist who is a successful consultant or whatever. I am looking for some new research result --- some proof, theorem, whatever --- that causes business A to change something about what it does.<br /><br />There are numerous examples from econometrics and finance, so this is not an anti-academic rant.David Kanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12252169100218858880noreply@blogger.com